Top 7 Take-aways

1. Industry in good health!
Due to constraining capex and oligopoly-like markets, the operators are in very good health. Developing markets still growing fast. Times haven’t been much better. Something must be brewing.

2. Major leap forward with handsets
Apple (and to an extent Android/Google) has given the industry a major shake-up. Previously operators were telling handset manufacturers that touch screens were ‘not what consumers wanted’ (according to a senior Motorola executive), and now they are demanding iPhone killer apps ASAP.

3. True bandwidth to the mobile is still shockingly bad! And will remain so for most of us for another 12 months
With all the talk of internet on your mobile, operators are very reluctantly rolling out 3G and HSPA in any meaningful capacity. Our prediction is that as internet usage on devices rises, so will frustration with operators.

4. Wimax lost?
To us Wimax seems to be bereft of any major operator friends. And without these, making any serious impact outside DSL residential replacement will be very hard work. Skype not so happy either – see here

5. Mobile advertising – too much expectation
Yes, mobile advertising will be a reasonably sized market, but in our view it will not be able to meet the expectations that the operators have for ‘filling the data revenue hole’. Micro payments must be a key part of the equation, but not when operators take 40% of the pie! Good summary here although it a bit too bullish for us.

6. GPS in 50% of new handsets within two years
GPS is ‘nearly’ here. It won’t be mass market until 2010, but the winners in this location related market will be active now.

7. Wi-Fi in everything
Whilst there are still some significant battery issues, Wi-Fi will increasingly be included in every device. With the disappointment we forecast around broadband cellular coverage, we predict that wifi hotspots will become increasingly important in filling the gap.


Thanks to our Advisory Board for their input; Participants included Yossi Vardi, Sachio Semmoto, David Nagel, Martin Haemmig, Hossein Eslambolchi, Gilles Delfassy, Eric Benhamou and Ahmad Bahai.

3i Party
We've posted some photos from the party we held for our investee companies and our close network. Thanks for coming. Better than ever, with a higher proportion of senior industry executives than ever.